A Russian missile strike has targeted Dnipro, a city in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin described the action as a trial launch of the newly developed Oreshnik hypersonic IRBM.
Our assessment suggests that the independent post-boost vehicles (IPBVs) of the Oreshnik missile differ significantly from traditional multiple rocket-powered vehicles. Instead, they appear to be genuine maneuverable atmospheric hypersonic vehicles, potentially with integrated submunitions, which distinguishes them from systems like the YARS-M intercontinental ballistic missile. This hypothesis is based on observations of overall hypersonic characteristics, though concrete details remain frustratingly ambiguous. While the United States possesses surveillance data from SBIRS (Space-Based Infrared System), official communications have been notably reticent. Pentagon press briefings have been criticized for lacking substantive technical details, with some observers noting that their statements seem more speculative than authoritative.
The traditional intercontinental or intermediate-range ballistic missile trajectory typically involves spent booster stages detaching, leaving a reentry vehicle (RV) traversing outside the atmosphere at hypersonic speeds. This configuration renders the payload vulnerable to mid-course interceptors like THAAD or S-500 systems. Existing reentry vehicles have limited evasive capabilities, often relying on deployable decoys with questionable effectiveness. Typically, warheads or multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) are only released just before atmospheric reentry, at which point they become susceptible to anti-ballistic missile systems.
The Oreshnik’s intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) boost phase appears distinctly unconventional. The apparent strategic intent involves elevating the payload to approximately 75 -100 kilometers—near the atmospheric boundary—several hundred kilometers downrange at speeds around Mach 12. At this point, the IPBVs are released, not as traditional rockets but as sophisticated hypersonic glide vehicles capable of traversing an additional 1,500 kilometers to their respective targets. This high-atmospheric hypersonic flight enables intense maneuverability, allowing precise evasion and targeting of geographically dispersed, off-axis objectives—a significant advancement over traditional MIRVs.
Arguably, the most significant feature of the Oreshnik is its payload. The Oreshnik’s payload configuration probably includes six hypersonic vehicles, reportedly carrying six submunitions. These submunitions operate at hypersonic terminal speeds but may not constitute true hypersonic flight vehicles. Observations suggest they lack the energetic maneuvering capabilities required for comprehensive evasion, though their full potential remains uncertain. The projectile’s kinetic energy is intrinsically retained within its particulate structure. Unlike conventional explosive devices, a hardened penetrator upon impact does not spontaneously dissipate its forward momentum into a radial dispersion. This principle underlies the Oreshnik’s design, featuring six distinct warhead buses, each equipped with six penetrators to maximize impact. Post-penetration of robust defenses, the challenge shifts to inflicting damage; analogous to the military’s acceptance of full metal jacket ammunition for small arms, which, despite reduced lethality compared to soft nose or HE rounds, can achieve sufficient lethality through multiple strikes – a strategy mirrored by the Oreshnik’s deployment of powerful, multi-hit penetrators.
Speculations about submunition composition range from solid tungsten alloy rods to more sophisticated designs. The Russians appear to have developed advanced metallurgical solutions for managing extreme thermal conditions during brief hypersonic flight. While dense metal slugs maximize kinetic strike effects, they significantly compromise vehicle maneuverability. A more nuanced approach might involve lighter, guidance-capable configurations that balance destructive potential with strategic flexibility. The precise geometric configuration of these mid-course hypersonic vehicles remains unknown. While the Avangard’s manta ray design works effectively for unitary warheads, it may prove impractical for accommodating six elongated submunitions. The Russian Ministry of Defense has predictably maintained strict secrecy regarding technical specifications.
The Oreshnik could have carried six RVs, each with six penetrators. However, this seems excessive. Perhaps six HVs, each carrying six penetrators released in the final stage, would be more efficient. Do both types of vehicles need maneuverability? Or is one sufficient to defeat air defenses, while the other ensures precise targeting? If the target is a heavily defended site with multiple layers of air defense systems, both types of payloads may need maneuverability. The first layer of maneuverable vehicles (HVs) can be used to saturate and overwhelm the air defenses, while the second layer of maneuverable penetrators can then navigate through the depleted defenses to reach the target. If the target is less defended or the threat environment is less sophisticated, a single layer of maneuverable payloads may be sufficient. The HVs can be used to defeat the air defenses, and the penetrators can then rely on their terminal guidance systems to ensure accurate targeting.Designing and producing maneuverable payloads is expensive. If a single layer of maneuverability can achieve the desired level of effectiveness, it may be a more cost-effective approach.
Russia has developed conventional warheads for its SAMRAT ICBM. These warheads could also have been fitted on the Oreshnik.
Strategically, the Oreshnik could represent an ideal first-wave weapon system for neutralizing heavily defended targets. Its submunitions might efficiently disable complex air defense networks or surface-to-air missile sites, creating corridors for subsequent ballistic or cruise missile deployments.
The missile’s potential origins in the Bulava program are intriguing, suggesting a compact design suitable for smaller chassis launchers. Comparative analysis reveals significant variations in dimensions and throw weight. While western sources often downplay missile parameters, internal specifications hint at more impressive capabilities. Range estimates vary considerably, with some suggesting potential modifications extending operational reach from 8,000 kilometers to potentially 15,000 kilometers.
Theoretical calculations regarding payload weight and range reveal complex interdependencies. As warhead weight increases, range predictably diminishes—though glide vehicle technologies might mitigate traditional payload constraints. For context, systems like the Hyunmoo-5 demonstrate comparable weight-to-range characteristics, carrying substantial payloads across significant distances.
Russian claims posit the Oreshnik as a completely novel design, unlinked to Soviet-era predecessors; however, with rare exceptions, both Soviet and Russian weapon developments typically adhere to an evolutionary paradigm. This approach involves the incremental advancement of existing systems into more contemporary forms, a strategy that streamlines development by conserving time, financial resources, and R&D efforts – as exemplified by the developmental trajectory of the Topol missile and its successive iterations. While certain components might have been borrowed from the Baluva, it is unlikely that the Oreshnik was directly derived from a Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM), given the probable incompatibility of the Baluva’s (or similar modern SLBMs’) launch methodology with the Oreshnik’s requirements. Similarly, direct development from the Yars system is also doubted, as this would effectively render the Oreshnik a variant of the RS-26 Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM).
The Oreshnik is speculated to be a relatively compact missile, with a maximum range of approximately 4000 km, drawing parallels with the 15P666 “Speed” in terms of scale. Officially classified as a Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) by Russian sources, the Oreshnik is anticipated to be part of a broader series of new missile developments, potentially encompassing the RS-26 or a derivative thereof in future iterations.