The Oreshnik, a Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), is characterized by its extremely high speed, exceeding Mach 10 (3.40 km/s) based on reports from the Ukrainian military. There’s perhaps one main reason for using Oreshnik, and destroying a factory isn’t it. It’s an area destruction weapon, shown off to the world. Russia suggests that it is unstoppable by NATO’s defenses. What could be its legitimate targets? Airfields, harbors, US bases in Europe. Decades to make western ground based air defense systems work, Russia recons they can be obliterated in seconds. Another asymmetric answer from Russia, cheap and effective.
Russia now has a strategic missile advantage, even the USSR didn’t. Precise conventional strikes from strategic bombers too. Plus tactical missiles – Iskander, Tsirkon, Onyx, Kh-32, Kinzhal. Kalibra and Kh-101 are for strategic strikes over a range of 5,000 km. There is an active ABM at the development stage. There are several systems on TELs that are harder to spot than a submarine. They probably never had this advantage, and now they have it apart from Poseidon and Burevestnik. Russians have excellent solid-fuel rocket engines from Yars and Bulava that have been modernized with better fuel and sensors. New missile systems will be universal, common parts and principles. Therefore, we’re watching a massive rearmament project unfold.
I don’t get the problem with warhead penetration at high speed. There are many ways to destroy, from slicing through to releasing energy as heat. Different targets need different approaches, we don’t know what Oreshnik does. But if it’s an area weapon, it can’t just penetrate deep, most targets aren’t super bunkers. Putin said the impact temperature matches estimates, hotter than conventional bombs, hence the different effects. There would be barely any destruction if the penetrator just goes through with minimal energy loss, it’s basic physics. Only the Russian MoD knows the warhead’s mass, speed, and materials, so damage calculations can be wrong. However, anyone can calculate kinetic energy at a given speed, fighting physics is pointless.
Warheads can hit independent targets but can the sub-munitions do the same. They land in a pattern around the target, spread adjustable by release height. Bunkers targeted with penetrators, airfields with cluster bombs – that’s what militaries want. The video of the Oreshnik strike released by the Ukrainian MoD showed six payloads delivered separately, likely scattered more widely, but the penetrators from each MIRV seem to be in a line, based on the target shape, not randomly scattered.
One warhead bus could hit a massive target like a major European city with six MIRVs, 200Kt each, spread the damage over a huge area. Six buses, six cities, six nukes each, can level them precisely. For example, RSD-10 warheads had limited attack area, increasing it was a modernization goal. Pioneers produced between 1976-1987, peaked at 441 launchers. The R-36M2 supposedly disperses 10 MIRVs, maybe more, with RT-23 charges, covering over 300,000 sq km.
A key aspect is the uncertainty surrounding Oreshnik’s flight trajectory, hindering precise analysis. Speculation arises regarding the possibility of Oreshnik employing a modular warhead system, akin to the Yars M missile, which could enhance its range and versatility. Furthermore, the introduction of “New HGVs” (Hypersonic Glide Vehicles) is significant. These HGVs possess the ability to maneuver throughout their flight path, significantly enhancing the weapon’s evasiveness and strike precision. This contrasts with the limited maneuverability of traditional MIRVs (Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles). While both HGVs and MaRVs exhibit maneuverability, MaRVs primarily maneuver within the atmosphere to evade anti-ballistic missile defenses and improve accuracy. MaRVs were notably employed on missiles like the R-36M2, where they utilized radar and terrain mapping to refine their trajectory. The speed and maneuverability of these vehicles, coupled with the limited availability of atmospheric interceptors outside of Russia, pose a significant challenge for any potential adversary.
Oreshnik can have different platform configurations. It makes sense to have options for different warheads to engage different target types. MRV warhead with nuclear warheads ideal for soft area targets like major cities. However, ships, submarines, underwater pipes, tunnels, subways are interesting targets too.
Oreshnik gives Moscow leverage in non-nuclear deterrence. But if needed, the munition can be nuclear. Six shells hit Yuzhmash. If the system carries the same number of nuclear warheads, that’s a whole different level of destruction.