Several nations are developing inexpensive cruise missiles capable of operating in swarms to evade or overwhelm enemy defenses. These missiles will be designed with versatility in mind, enabling customers to integrate advanced technologies like more destructive warheads or more fuel-efficient engines as they become available. The primary technological objectives are twofold. The U.S Air Force seeks a weapon system that is affordable and can be produced quickly, even in small quantities. Additionally, these missiles must be capable of semi-autonomous, networked operation to counter integrated air defense systems. A low-cost system equipped with sensors could transform these cruise missiles into disposable intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets or loitering munitions that can wait for the optimal moment to attack.
The seeker heads should be able to target the enemy in various modes, enhancing their flexibility and accuracy, even in the face of layered enemy defenses or adverse weather conditions. Hostile air defense networks increasingly include electronic warfare capabilities that can hinder the launching aircraft or friendly assets providing guidance to the weapons or disrupt their functionality. Additionally, GPS-signal spoofing could potentially divert the missiles off course.
In addition to the low-cost goal, an efficient engine could extend the weapon’s overall range without increasing fuel load. Militaries have emphasized the importance of this improved stand-off capability to protect the launch platform from defensive networks. Non-stealthy aircraft, in particular, are becoming increasingly vulnerable to longer-range surface-to-air missiles guided by various radars and other sensors.
A swarm of low-cost cruise missiles could enable the U.S. military to launch widespread attacks more affordably and easily. Simultaneously, it would force the enemy to allocate significant additional resources to counter this threat, overwhelming their air defense networks or shifting their focus. A modular system would allow the Air Force to swiftly add or modify the missiles with electronic and cyber warfare capabilities or even transform them into decoys that mimic the signatures of larger aircraft. This could further hinder the enemy’s ability to respond, protecting other parts of the force package or facilitating follow-on strikes by non-stealthy platforms.
Integrated Solutions for Systems, Zone 5, and Dynetics are some of the companies that have already developed innovative, low-cost cruise missiles.
The primary reason armed forces are compelled to use expensive materials is their excessive emphasis on non-volatile and non-sensitive munitions. Coupled with their stringent shelf and carriage life requirements, this drives up costs. Reducing these requirements can significantly lower costs, especially during wartime when short shelf lives are less critical and munitions may be reused only a few times. However, in peacetime, disposing of unused munitions and procuring replacements can offset cost savings, particularly if consumption rates are high enough to maintain production capacity. Therefore, it’s a balancing act between the needs of peacetime and low-intensity warfare and the preparedness for a full-scale peer conflict.
Even the most affordable missile-class turbojet engine can cost between $50,000 and $70,000 on its own. If you require a GPS/INS unit that is resistant to spoofing by a cell tower, the cost can easily exceed $150,000 when considering fuel, warhead, and airframe expenses. The Iranian Shahed drones, for example, have limited utility beyond terror bombings. They lack the ability to target moving targets or verify their location, resulting in a large circular error probable (CEP) measured in hundreds or even thousands of meters. Additionally, their small 110-pound warhead, primarily consisting of fragmentation rather than explosive material, is inadequate. Addressing these shortcomings would essentially result in a first-generation cruise missile similar to the ones being phased out in favor of stealthy, maneuverable designs.
If the goal is merely to create expendable targets for the Chinese to waste missiles on, without even considering the potential for war crimes against their population, there is even less justification for such long range. Prioritizing mass advantage, reducing the range could allow for more missiles to be carried on a single aircraft. While swapping the warhead for an electronic warfare payload might be considered, it would essentially reinvent the MALD system.
The fact that the military is currently developing designs and standards does not imply that they will immediately place large orders for these missiles. They frequently fund projects that never reach production. The primary obstacle is not technical but rather mental. The military needs to embrace the idea that some equipment may not be durable and adjust their peacetime consumption and procurement of ammunition accordingly. Lawmakers must also be prepared to accept increased overall spending on munitions. Making tradeoffs is easier when operations are adjusted to accommodate them, but attempting to force a square peg into a round hole inevitably leads to challenges.
Unless the defense department allocates substantial funding to purchase thousands of additional cruise missiles, there will be no significant investment in supply and manufacturing. Major defense contractors would be eager to capitalize on such an opportunity if there were substantial funding behind these ideas. However, without government commitment to purchase the missiles, there is no incentive for industry to invest. Most defense departments in NATO member states have not indicated any plans to allocate hundreds of millions of dollars to acquire a stockpile. In the absence of a war, these small startups may struggle to survive, even with government subsidies. Ideally, we would want to avoid such subsidies and rely on the efficiency of the market. If there is a genuine need and sufficient funding, the industry will respond accordingly. This is the essence of capitalism.